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從中興、華為觸礁到日本 5G 戰略

2018/5/11 — 21:14

中興出口到希臘的通訊設備紙盒 l John Karakatsanis @ flickr — Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic (CC BY-SA 2.0)

中興出口到希臘的通訊設備紙盒 l John Karakatsanis @ flickr — Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic (CC BY-SA 2.0)

中興、華為觸礁為全城黃藍絲提供了火藥。藍的更加興奮,大發強國夢。馬雲所倡議的超級科研中心是為了搵習近平笨。它是徐福為秦始皇到海上蓬萊覓長生不死藥的現代版。本文的結論是,發展5G,我們需要一個好的政府,一個民主的政府。

它給習近平的考驗是:集體主義經濟如何融入全球化,或社會主義經濟的優越性為何?習近平不能回答這問題,就等於沒有中國模式。因而,它與一帶一路有關。

美國佬不是好人,日本領教過了。日本的手機通訊業在1997引入電郵;1999年引入拍照;2000年引入3G;2001年引入Apps;2002年引入歌曲;2003年引入HSDPA (3.6 Mbps)制式;2004年引入手機支付。它的手機通訊業一直領升世界,直至2007年被美國的I-phone 和南韓的 Samung打殘。它在2018年1月的“日本處於在十字路口 - 4G到5G的演變”(註一)研究報告中用的字眼是:

廣告

“Foreign handset manufacturers have completely disrupted the Japanese market.”

“The experience of recent years shows companies (such as Apple and Samsung) can disrupt the market quickly,----.”

廣告

(本文的所有英文段落來自該報告。)

現代徐福之所以不可為,是因為問題遠比自制芯片複雜。首先整個問題是5G網絡系統,個人接收只是其中一部份;第二,自研芯片至少三五年間,到其時整個技術已經改觀;第三,日本報告寫得很清楚,5G系統太龐大,必須找缺口和國際合作(註二)。

日本需要在2020年的奧運會和殘奧會前發展5G,所急起直追的方法論是完全資本模式的;相比,中興、華為觸礁反映了官僚資本的不可逾越的困難。

中共官僚的方法

中共能爬升升全球第二大經濟體系,說明它是一個相當有效率的官僚體制。它希望聯同日韓共同發展5G。朝鮮半島無核化是中日韓合作的必要條件。

2018年5月9日,中國與日本和南韓在日本東京舉行第七次中日韓領導人會議(註三)。

合作宣言表示:

“此外,我們認識到在5G移動通信、全球漫遊等通信領域加強協作有助於促進相互交流合作。我們將在三國資訊通信部長會議機制下推動該領域的聯合研究、技術合作、資訊共用和人力資源交流。我們也歡迎並鼓勵企業界、學術界、智庫等相關實體在這一領域進行合作。”

China plans a massive deployment from 2020, targeting a penetration of more than 400 million 5G connections by 2025.

問題是,南韓的三星處在最高肉食鍵,它為何要扶植中國?日本的報告也將中韓視作競爭對手。它只有意到中韓買些現成的平嘢。

Japan needs to ensure that the 4G to 5G transition will be fast and successful to avoid further weakening Japan’s competitiveness compared with China and South Korea.

中國的5G

到2035年,5G的全球影響力將達到12.3萬億美元(與2017年中國的國內生產總值相當,約為2035年全球產值的4.6%)

阿里巴巴已是全球最有價值的科技公司之一。公司對進行了大規模投資,它的4G平台每月有超過5億的活躍移動用戶。中國計劃在2020年全面鋪設5G,在5年內達到4億個5G用戶(註四)。

日本

直至2008年,日本手機的滲透率達到全球的84%。但它有幾個問題:它的內需很大,沒有重視海外市場;其制式不與國際接軋;內部用量太大,導致線路很慢。它的4G覆蓋率雖然很高,但其的下載速度只及全球最快的瑞士的3成。

在目前,其三大電信運營商KDDI,NTT DOCOMO和SoftBank在財務上依然表現良好。它們的每月平均用戶消費(ARPU)高達38美元,比歐洲運營商的20美元為高;其月流失率為0.7%,比歐洲的1.9%為低。

這種情況在全球範圍內是獨一無二的,因為在目前,日本生產的手機在只佔國內市場的3成。當越來越多客戶轉用蘋果或三星時,日本的網絡運營商將受到空前壓力(註4)。

5G規格

在理論上,5G比4G快100倍;它的網絡延後快5倍;其誤失率差不多為零;它承受的周邊智能設施 ( internet of  things)的數量大100倍;智能設施的電池壽命可達10年齡(註6)。更為重要的是,5G傳送數據比4G便宜。

從科技史看,每一次通訊系統升級前,人們都無法預測其實際作用,但每次都帶來巨大商業收益。例如,1G至2G帶來了SMS(註7)。因此,坊間說法──“4G已經夠快啦,是否要追5G”,完全無知。

但是,對受訪的主管來說,速度仍然是最重要,其次順序為新工業受惠,通訊領域領先地位,新用途,為網絡供應商增加收益。

未來工業

專家評估,未來5G使用最多的地方按先後次序為:智能汽車、基層建設如智能電網、未來辦公室(雲端)、災難警示、家居控制及搖控機械人。

工業上的最大獲益者為:智能工廠、通訊、交通及物流、醫療監控用品、銀行及保險。

擴增實境

擴增實境(AR)已進入手機領域。越來越多的應用程序使用手機的視頻功能實時疊加圖片。最顯著的例子是2016年發布的Pokémon Go,它在2017年4月有超過6500萬活躍用戶。另一個是谷歌翻譯。蘋果於2017年9月發布的最新的操作系統iOS 11承諾AR功能。該套件將允許開發人員為iPhone構建AR應用程序,宜家公司已經發布了擴增實境平台的應用程序。

除了 手機, Google Glass和HoloLens都在測試AR。一個使用案例是在倉庫中,撿拾者用它來尋找物品(註8)。

智能汽車

汽車行業對日本的出口業非常重要,截至2016年,其淨出口為1310億美元。它佔出口總額的16%,僅在生產方面就僱用了80多萬人(註九)。

機械人

日本的機器人技術置於全球前沿,2016年其出口額將近27億美元,佔全球工業機器人供應量的52%。

中國的機器人五年計劃表示它要每年生產10萬具機械人(註10)。中國的藍圖是要打殘美國的機器人工業。"China’s blueprint to crush the US robotics industry,"

這裡所說的機器人不單指工業機器人,還包括服務老人和兒童的家用機器人,服務性機械人會越來越重要。日本的60歲以上人口為31%,香港為24%,美國為18%,中國為18%。機器人可以負責家務和向老年人提供食品或藥品等,因此,5G對日本有特殊意義(註11)。

物聯網

物聯網泛指所有能連上互聯網傳輸數據到中央資料庫的東西,例如監測即時健康的病人手鐲。日本人不準備在這裡大展拳腳,因為美德已發展成熟(註12)。

監管者角色

監管者,在香港即通訊事務管理局,在進動5G有十分重要的責任,因為它分配頻譜。高頻可分為1G以下、1至6G,及6G以上。

由於未來產品會賣到全世界,因此頻譜必需標準化。目前的1G以下分給了4G,但將來,5G也要用它,尤其是物聯網;1至6G適合於城市內使用;極高頻的6G以上在運用上有一定限制。

有些頻譜需預留給天文望遠鏡、衛星導航、雷達等等(註13)。

香港

香港也準備在2020年引入5G,它正以最低行使價訂於每兆赫 5,400 萬元優惠價,拍賣0.9至1.8G頻譜給未來的5G網絡商(註14)。

討論

從日本的作法看到,香港沒有未來工業,其發展5G的動用較弱。中國則好大喜功,其人口老化遠比日本低,本身機械人工業,特別是服務性機械人尚未起步,它的汽車業不及日本,因此,其發展5G的迫切性較低。

更有甚者,中國的勞動人口較低水平。集中資本發展機械人,那麼原來的低端人口吃什麼呢?

我們從日本的研究報告中看到,發展高端科技,要國際合作,見縫插針。資本是重要,政府牽頭是重要,監管者角色是重要。但它要一個好的政府,即一個民主的政府,這一點,中國沒有。

 

 

備註

註一

Japan at a crossroads –The 4G to 5G (r)evolution

Research report January 2018

This report is the result of collaboration between McKinsey’s Japan office and the Firm’s global Telecom, Media and Technology (TMT) practices.

By 2020, Japanese operators will roll out 5G, the next-generation mobile network, in time to host the Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Finally, the value at stake is massive, estimated to be $4 to $11 trillion globally in 2025 from IoT alone.

1.歷史背景 - 移動通信領域的領導者

2.當前的現實 - 落後

2.1容量和使用限制

2.2來自移動通信設備市場全球競爭的壓力

3.網絡發展機遇 - 為什麼對日本重要

3.1大幅提升性能並擴大用例

3.2對日本工業和社會的競爭力和未來成功至關重要

4.前進的道路 - 日本如何能夠恢復其領導地位

4.1運營商需要基於全球最好的產品和服務構建下一代基礎架構和產品

4.2次級移動電信設備供應商需要建立聯盟並尋找新的增長點

4.3行業,政府和監管機構需要與運營商和移動電信設備供應商合作,並接受這項新技術

5.對未來的展望 - 為什麼日本需要加速轉型

1. Historical context – Leaders in mobile communications

2. Current reality – Falling behind

2.1 Capacity and usage constraints

2.2 Pressure from global competition in the mobile telecom equipment market

3. The network evolution opportunity – Why it matters to Japan

3.1 Substantial performance improvements and proliferation of use cases

3.2 Critical for the competitiveness and future success of Japanese industry and society at large

4. The way forward – How Japan can regain its leadership position

4.1 Operators need to build the next-generation infrastructure and offerings based on the best of global products and services

4.2 Subscale mobile telecom equipment vendors need to build alliances and find new pockets of growth

4.3 Industry, government, and regulators need to collaborate with operators and mobile telecom equipment vendors and embrace the new technology

5. A vision for the future – Why Japan needs to accelerate the transition

 

註二

To capture this opportunity, stakeholders should consider three strategic imperatives:

1. Operators  need to build the next-generation infrastructure and offerings based on the best of global products and services: By using solutions from the global innovation ecosystem and limiting customization, operators will be able to reduce time to market for new features, limit vendor lock-in, and deploy more cost-effective solutions for their networks. Striving for global standards and developing procurement capabilities will help this process.

2. Subscale mobile telecom equipment vendors need to build alliances and find new pockets of growth: By refocusing their portfolios, limiting customization, and building alliances, network equipment and handset players can tap into 5G growth opportunities and combat increasing development costs.

3. Industry, government, and regulators need to collaborate with operators and mobile telecom equipment vendors and embrace the new technology: By actively engaging with the telecom industry to shape the next-generation networks, the private and public sector can enable new  products and services that can be scaled globally, thus regaining technology leadership.

 

註三

第七次中日韓領導人會議聯合宣言

《 人民日報 》( 2018年05月10日   03 版)

2018年5月9日,我們,中華人民共和國、日本國和大韓民國的領導人,在日本東京舉行第七次中日韓領導人會議。

我們讚賞2015年11月首爾第六次中日韓領導人會議發表聯合宣言以來,三國各領域合作取得的積極進展。我們認識到三國合作有利於構建地區和平合作平臺。鑒此,我們重申將致力於進一步深化和拓展三國合作。

我們認識到三國對確保地區及世界和平穩定肩負共同責任。三國國內生產總值之和超過世界總量的20%,應為增進世界繁榮發揮重要作用。我們重申攜手應對地區和全球挑戰。

我們讚賞並重申中日韓合作秘書處對推進三國合作的作用,支持秘書處加強能力建設並更廣泛地參與三國合作。我們重申啟動三國合作基金有助於實施三國合作專案。

三國合作

我們一致認為,定期舉行三國領導人會議意義重大,將為三國政治、經濟、社會和可持續發展等各領域合作與對話提供政治動力。我們重申三國之間有著過去的歷史和長久的未來,將基於2015年三國領導人會議達成的共識繼續合作。

我們高度評價上次領導人會議以來三國舉辦衛生、教育、環境、金融、交通、物流、文化、體育、經貿和災害管理等各領域部長級會議,這些會議顯示了我們在各領域協調政策、開展合作的政治意願。我們歡迎2016年8月在東京舉行的第八次三國外長會,會議就共同關心的戰略問題交換了意見,為三國領導人會議奠定了基礎。

我們注意到定期舉行三國外長會議對促進三國合作的重要性。

我們認識到促進人員往來對擴展和鞏固三國合作基礎至關重要。

為此,並根據《平昌宣言》,我們期待以三國舉辦奧運會和殘奧會為契機加強文化、體育等領域交流合作,即已成功舉辦的2018平昌冬季奧運會和殘奧會,將要舉辦的2020東京奧運會和殘奧會及2022北京冬季奧運會和殘奧會。

我們重申三國擴大旅遊交流的重要性,將努力實現到2020年三國人員往來達到3000萬人次的目標,並通過“遊歷東方”活動進一步提高三國吸引力。我們大力支持青年交流,鼓勵三國青年峰會等合作項目。

我們認識到“東亞文化之都”項目對三國文化交流具有重要意義,祝賀當選2018年“東亞文化之都”的城市,期待歷年當選城市加強文化交流。我們認識到教育合作對加深相互瞭解的重要意義,讚賞三國致力於通過擴展“亞洲校園”專案促進高等院校學生交流,期待進一步提升該專案。

考慮到公共外交對三國民眾增進瞭解、深化友誼的重要作用,我們歡迎繼續就中日韓公共外交論壇進行磋商。

我們支持三國人文交流項目,如青年領導人圓桌會議和中日韓文化巴士。

我們重視開展三國領事合作,願研究建立三國領事磋商機制,通過分享最佳經驗、探索合作計畫,加強長期機制性合作。

我們致力於構建開放型世界經濟。我們認識到自由開放的貿易和投資對於經濟增長的重要性,將堅守承諾,繼續致力於經濟自由化,反對一切形式的保護主義,改善營商環境。我們將共同努力,加強基於規則、自由開放、透明、非歧視、包容和以世界貿易組織為基礎的多邊貿易體系,歡迎世界貿易組織就電子商務、投資便利化和中小微型企業等當今國際貿易挑戰進行的討論。我們強調雙邊、區域和諸邊貿易協定對補充和強化多邊貿易體系的重要性。我們重申三國自由貿易協定是深化經貿合作、推動東亞地區貿易投資自由化與便利化的重要路徑,符合三國共同利益。我們重申將進一步加速三國自由貿易協定談判,力爭達成全面、高水準、互惠且具有自身價值的自由貿易協定。我們也重申加快《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》談判,以期儘快達成現代、全面、高品質和互惠的協定,注意到市場准入和規則方面的談判需取得進展。我們將共同努力在各個領域取得高品質並具有商業意義的成果。

我們認識到為保持經濟持續增長繁榮,有必要建立重視創意、促進公平競爭的智慧財產權體系。我們認為三國智慧財產權合作,包括智慧財產權局長政策對話,對推進區域智慧財產權體系建設具有重要作用,期待三國就此進一步加強合作。

我們認識到工業部門產能過剩的負面影響,將共同應對這一問題。

我們認識到加強區域聯通的重要性,決心通過三方對話磋商加強區域互聯互通和基礎設施合作,促進東亞整體發展。我們將進一步加強經貿關係,深化利益融合。為此我們將在供應鏈互聯互通、電子商務、內容產業和標準化等領域加強經濟合作,提升競爭力。我們重申三國能源合作對實現東北亞可持續發展和共同繁榮的必要性。我們決定適時達成三國合作諒解備忘錄,以增進東北亞液化天然氣市場透明度和流動性。

考慮到電子商務對創造新經濟價值的重要性,我們一致認為在互利互惠的基礎上開展電子商務合作對三國有利。

我們認識到,三國在海關和交通領域的合作對確保貿易便利化和安全具有重要意義。作為未來幾年奧運會和殘奧會等大型國際活動的主辦國,我們特別重申在促進貨物和人員合法流動的同時加強邊境保護的重要性,歡迎2017年11月在東京舉行的三國海關領導人會議關於加強資訊交流、分享經驗的決定。

當前全球經濟面臨著跨境一體化進程倒退、金融環境超預期收緊等風險,在這種不確定性下,中日韓三國將繼續通過深度交流與協調應對可能的金融波動。我們將加強區域金融合作,提高清邁倡議多邊化(CMIM)的可用性和有效性,加強東盟與中日韓宏觀經濟研究辦公室(AMRO)的監控和組織能力建設,以充分發揮其作為獨立、可信、專業的國際組織的使命,促進亞洲債券市場倡議(ABMI)的發展。為此,我們歡迎CMIM首次定期評估取得的積極進展,並期待其順利完成。這將有助於通過延長與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)貸款掛鉤部分的貸款支援期限,強化融資支援;與IMF建立更好的協調機制,促進聯合融資;以及在啟動CMIM時加強與有關方溝通,維護市場信心,加強CMIM作為區域金融安全網的作用。我們讚賞AMRO繼續為CMIM運行提供支持,以及在建立和擴展與地區、全球夥伴關係上取得的成就,祝賀其獲得聯合國大會永久觀察員地位。我們歡迎各方2017年12月決定向“區域信用擔保與投資基金”增資。

我們強調攜手應對衛生和老齡化等關乎人類安全的共同挑戰具有重要意義,認識到強化公共衛生事件緊急預案和應對、解決抗菌素耐藥性、實現全民健康覆蓋的重要性,將持續在這些領域開展合作。我們還將加強入境檢驗檢疫合作。

此外,我們將擴大在衛生服務產業和遠端醫療方面的合作,加強相關資訊和人員交流,減少嚴重威脅人類健康的癌症等非傳染性疾病和傳染性疾病。我們將積極分享資訊和交流政策,應對人口老齡化,推動健康老齡化,致力於持續開展三國老齡化政策對話。我們將推動輔助器具、物理和資訊通信技術(ICT)可用性和資源分享,使殘障人士參與快速發展的互聯網經濟,顯著提升他們參與經濟和社會活動的水準和品質。我們將努力充分利用科學與ICT的優勢,如腦科學、應對氣候變化的技術、殘疾輔助技術、物聯網、大資料和人工智慧等,促進經濟增長和社會福利發展,應對全球性問題。此外,我們認識到在5G移動通信、全球漫遊等通信領域加強協作有助於促進相互交流合作。我們將在三國資訊通信部長會議機制下推動該領域的聯合研究、技術合作、資訊共用和人力資源交流。我們也歡迎並鼓勵企業界、學術界、智庫等相關實體在這一領域進行合作。

我們將進一步加強三國在打擊網路犯罪、恐怖主義和暴力極端主義等領域的政策磋商。我們致力於維護共同受益的安全ICT環境,重申集體應對ICT安全問題的重要性。我們歡迎並支援聯合國資訊安全政府專家組在資訊通信領域國際安全方面的歷次報告。報告認為國際法、特別是《聯合國憲章》對於維護國際和平與安全,推動構建開放、安全、穩定、無障礙、和平的資訊通信環境是適用且不可或缺的。針對本地區面臨的安全挑戰,我們將加強三國在裁軍與防擴散領域的溝通與合作,並將繼續在核安全監管高官會機制下開展核安全合作。

基於我們對“聯合國2030年可持續發展議程”的承諾,我們將進一步加強經濟、社會和環境合作,實現可持續發展。我們歡迎在三國環境部長會議機制下取得的進展,重申將繼續共同努力,防止空氣污染和海洋垃圾,促進迴圈經濟發展,提高資源使用效率。我們期待中日韓環境污染防治技術合作網路建設取得進展。

我們強調應在農業、跨境動物疾病、林業以及生物多樣性領域開展合作,包括外來入侵物種管理和海洋生物資源可持續利用。我們重申將在加強應對氣候變化方面做出不懈努力,堅定支持全面落實《巴黎協定》。我們支持2017年6月第二輪中日韓北極事務高級別對話在東京通過的聯合聲明,重申三國在北極事務、尤其是科學研究方面開展合作的重要性。

我們重申根據2011年第四次中日韓領導人會議通過的災害管理合作原則和措施,致力於加強減災合作,注意到三國災害管理部門部長級會議、災害管理桌面推演等機制取得進展。

我們認識到有效執行《仙台減災框架2015—2030》對於大幅降低災害風險和生命損失、保障民生和健康的重要性。我們將進一步努力,提升公眾意識,歡迎在世界海嘯日召開的高中生峰會並發表《黑潮宣言》。

我們願共同探討“中日韓+1”合作模式,包括加強三國對話磋商,分享發展經驗,深化各領域務實合作,促進地區內外可持續發展。

國際地區形勢

我們致力於半島完全無核化,重申維護半島和東北亞和平穩定是我們的共同利益和責任,強調只有通過國際合作,並根據聯合國安理會有關決議全面解決各方關切才能為朝鮮半島光明未來奠定基礎。中韓領導人希望日朝之間的綁架問題通過對話儘快得以解決。

我們認識到在地區和國際機制中開展合作的重要性,將合作推動東盟與中日韓(10+3)、東亞峰會(EAS)、亞太經合組織(APEC)和二十國集團(G20)等機制取得具體成果,包括將於2019年在日本舉辦的G20峰會。我們注意到10+3框架下《東亞第二展望小組報告》有關建議取得的進展,包括2020年實現東亞經濟共同體的願景。

我們期待在中方擔任主席國期間召開下一次會議。

 

註四

In the previous generation of networks, China made massive investments into LTE, which helped create and scale companies such as Alibaba, now one of the world’s most valuable tech companies, with more than 500 million active mobile users monthly across its platforms.

According to a recent estimate, the global impact from 5G will be $12.3 trillion by 2035 (similar to China’s GDP in 2017, and 4.6 percent of estimated global real output in 2035).

With an aging population and a challenging demographic outlook, productivity and more efficient healthcare will be key in order for Japan to reduce economic impact and sustain quality of life for its citizens. Currently, 31 percent of the population in Japan is older than 60 years of age, compared with 13 and 18 percent in China and the United States respectively

China plans a massive deployment from 2020, targeting a penetration of more than 400 million 5G connections by 2025.

 

註五

During that time, mobile penetration in Japan was one of the highest in the world, growing from 11 percent to 84 percent between 1996 and 2008; only a handful of other countries surpassed it.

The three major Japanese telecom operators, KDDI, NTT DOCOMO, and SoftBank, still perform well financially. The operators have a high monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) of $38, compared with $20 for operators in Europe, and still manage to have a low monthly churn of 0.7 percent, compared with 1.9 percent in Europe.12 This situation is unique globally, and if the rest of the world is anything to learn from, then operators in Japan could face a more challenging future. When customers increasingly want Apple or Samsung, not operator specific, handsets available among all operators, the differentiation becomes limited and more focused on price and performance. This will in turn puts pressure on the profitability, and cost leadership will become important as the trend evolves.

 

註六

3.1 Substantial performance improvements and proliferation of use cases Evolving the network to 5G is inevitable given the predicted growth in data traffic. 5G infrastructure will transmit data at a lower cost than 4G, given additional spectrum, as well as increased spectrum efficiency enabled by technologies such as coordinated multipoint and massive multi-user multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO). Japanese telecom managers believe increases in speed and capacity will be the key benefit of 5G, rather than new use cases and additional revenue streams (Exhibit 8). As scaling capacity with legacy equipment becomes too costly and unsustainable, this increase in efficiency through 5G will be a necessity.

5G specifications and requirements

The telecommunication standardization organization 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) is developing technical standards for 5G networks, with completion for commercial deployment expected in 2019.14 The initial plan is for the network to deliver substantial performance improvements compared to LTE, which includes the following items:

ƒƒHigher data speed: The speed will have a theoretical limit 100x faster than 4G, delivering fixed broadband-like speed and providing gigabits per second (Gbps) speed in certain areas.

ƒƒUltralow latency: The response time will be reduced to 5:1 of that with 4G networks, and latency will have a theoretical response rate of 1 millisecond.

ƒƒMassive number of connections: The number of connections per radio base station will be 100 times higher than for 4G, supporting the expected increase in IoT devices.

ƒƒOther requirements:

—— Ultrahigh reliability: The network should have a reliability of 99.999 percent or higher for use cases that demand it.

—— Device power efficiency: Battery life should be significantly increased to more than ten years for an IoT device.

The evolution to the next-generation network will be a collection of different technologies that will need to integrate to achieve the significant increase in performance across the different dimensions. A few of these technologies will be on the new radio front end, leveraging for example Massive MIMO and millimeter wave spectrum, Modulation/Waveforms with spectral sharing technologies.

The technology will also build on collaboration between macro and micro sites, on which the macro sites will further leverage the LTE base stations as they continuously become more efficient and include new features branded as LTE Advanced. Hence, 5G will follow an evolutionary path and use technology and features already in market as part of LTE and LTE Advanced. In this report we will refer to 5G or network evolution to describe the features that are not yet available in the network, even though they may not be labelled as 5G on a stand-alone basis.

 

註七

All in all, the next generation of mobile networks will have a hugely beneficial impact, similarly to previous generations. When 2G replaced 1G, Short Message Service (SMS) was not predicted to be the huge revenue generator it became. Equally, when 3G replaced 2G, the technology was not immediately clear on how data capabilities would be monetized. When 4G replaced 3G, there was uncertain about why the additional capacity was necessary. Looking back, demand always rose to meet additional capacity and eventually led to enormous economic benefits. 5G will most likely play out in similar fashion.

 

註八

Augmented reality (AR) may be the next mass-market hit

Handsets are already entering the area of AR. More and more applications use the video functionality of the phone to overlay pictures in real time, adding information or adjusting in some way. The most notable example is Pokémon Go, which was released in 2016 and had more than 65 million active users in April 2017.32 Another is Google Translate. Apple’s latest operating system, iOS 11, released in September 2017, promises AR capabilities through its ARKit technology. The kit will allow developers to build AR applications for the iPhone, and companies like IKEA have already released applications using the platform.33

 Phones are not the only devices that use AR. Many companies have experimented with integrating AR into eyewear. Google, with Glass, and Microsoft with HoloLens are both testing AR devices. While AR has not yet come into mainstream use, there are many niche examples where it is already applied. One use case is in warehouses, where pickers use the technology to help them locate and pick the correct items. With a more advanced network infrastructure, the number of areas where AR can cater for a significant market will likely increase.

 

註九

Government should make next-generation networks a strategic priority

 Japan’s exporting industries are hugely important to the country with the automotive industry alone generating $131 billion in net exports as of 2016.36 As connectivity becomes more important for exporting industries, the government should make a leading next generation telecom network a strategic priority. In addition to economic benefits, new network infrastructure will bring social rewards, for example, in supporting surgery in rural hospitals, surveillance for crime prevention, disaster alerts, and education, among others.

Case study one – The automotive industry

 The automotive industry is especially important for the Japanese economy. It accounts for 16 percent of exports16 and employs more than 800,000 people in production alone.17 Internet connectivity will become integral to the car of the future, given technological advances in GPS, automated driving, and other features. The network-enabled car may even disrupt the landscape and introduce new business models for car companies to handle (Exhibit 12). To remain competitive globally, it is crucial that the automotive industry is supported by a network that helps shape the future of connected cars.

 

註十

Chinese government has released a 5-year “Robotics Industry Development Plan,” and aims to manufacture at least 100,000 industrial robots annually

Currently, 31 percent of the population in Japan is older than 60 years of age, compared with 13 and 18 percent in China and the United States respectively (Exhibit

 

註十一

Case study two – The robotics industry  Technological advances in robotics have long been synonymous with Japan. Since the 1980s, industrial robots have been an increasingly common sight on factory floors. This occurrence is mainly because Japan’s many successful automotive and electronic manufacturing companies have needed to increase labor productivity. The increased penetration of industrial robots has fueled the growth of a domestic robotics industry, with Yaskawa and Fanuc as market leaders. It has also placed Japan at the forefront of robotic technology globally, with exports of almost $2.7 billion in 2016 and 52 percent of the global supply of industrial robots.21  The government has played an important role in realizing and maintaining Japan’s leadership in robotic technology. In 2015 the government launched a vision and action plan called “Robot revolution” intended to establish Japan as a robotics superpower and to “lead the world by intensive utilization of robots in a data-driven era.”22 The effort includes staying ahead in the ongoing transition from mature industrial manufacturing machine type of robots to new collaborative type of robots for the service industry (see inset "Collaborative robots").

The development is not only important to sustain exports of robotic products but also to maintain productivity and to provide care for the elderly, as the workforce experiences a significant shift towards retirement. In the current population, there are almost twice as many 60- to 64-year-old individuals as 0- to 4-year-old children, making Japan one of the first advanced countries to experience this dramatic demographic change.23 New robotic technology will be one of the main tools to handle this transition and dampen the economic effects on the country as a whole.

As technology advances, new types of robots more focused on service rather than industrial applications are approaching the inflection point for large-scale deployment (Exhibit 14). As these robots become more and more mobile and autonomous in the future, wireless connectivity will be essential. More specifically, 5G will play a central role in creating the next-generation of mobile robotics (for example, automated guided vehicles and remote controlled robots). Low latency, high data capacity, and ultra-high reliability will all be crucial.

 

註十二

Internet of Things is a term to describe devices connected to the internet or with the ability to transfer data over a mobile telecommunications network without requiring human interaction.

Looking at industry 4.0 (see inset "Industry 4.0"), including IoT, Japanese industries see a significant opportunity, but do not believe they are prepared to seize it (Exhibit 19). Companies in Germany and the United States are much better positioned. However, by participating in the evolution of the network, companies can take positive steps toward developing the innovations and solutions of the future.

 

註十二

Regulators should enable faster adoption of innovations

Another important stakeholder group when creating a purpose-built infrastructure and realizing innovations is regulators. This is especially true for future network infrastructure as it will rely on new, unassigned, frequency bands and enable use cases that can transform industries. By collaborating with both operators, equipment vendors, and industry stakeholders, regulators can remove barriers and help deploy 5G as quickly as possible.

Allocation of frequency spectrum is one area of importance for 5G where regulators play a central role. The performance and global interconnectivity of the mobile network depends on the assignment of the spectrum range. For 5G, three key frequency ranges will be needed to deliver the essential speed and coverage for the different use cases:

ƒƒ Sub-1 GHz, to achieve wide coverage and IoT use cases

ƒƒ 1 GHz to 6 GHz, to achieve a good mix of speed and coverage suitable for urban areas

ƒƒ Above 6 GHz, to achieve ultrahigh broadband speeds, while having limited range

Across the world, most of the useful frequency bands have already been allocated to different kinds of technologies, especially in the sub-1 GHz end of the spectrum. Making room for additional spectrum for mobile networks is a challenging process, especially when trying to achieve as close a standardization as possible across the world. To support an efficient mobile infrastructure with high performance, regulators should ensure that 5G frequency bands will be sufficient for operators’ needs and are as harmonized as possible with the international standards set by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).

Below 1 GHz, spectrum has not yet been allocated specifically to 5G, and is currently used for LTE, however, these bands can also be used for 5G in the future. To ensure good coverage and high performance, the spectrum range needs to be wide enough to also handle the future data traffic increase. Regulators can help operators by ensuring that enough spectrum in this range will be available in the future. In higher frequency ranges, Japan is considering allocating a total of 500 MHz between 1 GHz and 6 GHz, and 2 GHz in the range above 6 GHz. The frequencies under consideration are currently used by other radio systems, such as radio astronomy, radar, broadcasting, and satellite communications, and a lot of spectrum will need to be freed up from other less critical technologies (Exhibit 20). Regulators need to form a clear, accelerated plan for how to achieve this outcome as early as possible, as equipment manufacturers need time to develop new devices and other equipment. They should also allocate large continuous frequency bands (that is, not chopped up) to provide the best possible performance to the operators. Recent plans have shown that the regulators are accelerating this effort and Japan is shifting toward a more common practice to auction instead of allocating spectrum via beauty contest. This shift may also provide an opportunity for a possible fourth entrant to enter the Japanese market (see inset "Disruptions on the horizon for operators driving the cost imperative")

 

註十四

15. 考慮到是次頻譜重新指配工作中推出大量頻譜所帶來的影響,流動網絡營辦商就投資嶄新及創新技術方面的能力及意願所提交的意見,以及因應第五代(「5G」)流動服務預計在2020年推出作商業應用,流動網絡營辦商將需要投放大量資源興建有關基建,商經局局長認為拍賣底價應訂為稍高於兩個參考價值的平均數。因此,商經局局長決定900兆赫及1800兆赫頻帶內「拍賣頻譜」的拍賣底價應訂於每兆赫3,800萬元。

基於上文第 60 段所述的相同原因,由於流動網絡營辦商在興建相關基建以準備推出 5G 服務時,需要面對相當大的投資承擔,商經局局長決定把「優先權頻譜」的最低行使價訂為略高於但較接近兩個參考價格(每兆赫 3,800 萬元及 6,700 萬元)的平均數,而不是較接近較高的一端。經仔細考慮後,局長認為應把最低行使價訂於每兆赫 5,400 萬元。

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