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【零息結束】近十年首次 美聯儲局加息0.25厘 料明年加息1厘

2015/12/17 — 7:31

美國聯儲局主席耶倫(聯儲局片段截圖)

美國聯儲局主席耶倫(聯儲局片段截圖)

美國聯儲局在香港時間凌晨,結束兩日會議,並宣佈加息0.25厘,將聯邦基金利率目標範圍由0至0.25厘,上調至介乎0.25至0.5厘。長達七年的近零息週期正式結束,同時是今次2006年6月、即近十年以來首次有加息行動,加息行動亦符合市場預期。

根據聯邦儲備局17個委員作出的預測,2016年底的利率水平為1.375%,與9月時相同,顯示明年將再加息1厘,有分四次加息0.25%的可能;至於2017年和2018年預測分別為2.375及3.25厘,較9月時預測的2.625厘和3.375厘為低

聯邦儲備局在會後聲明表示,委員會認為勞動市場今年有顯著改善,也有信心通脹繼續向上,可以在中期達到2%指標,現時是時候採取行動調控未來經濟,預期在逐步調整貨幣政策下,美國經濟經會保持溫和擴張。

廣告

美國聯儲局主席耶倫於議息會議後見記者,她指出,聯儲局的行動標誌著超寬鬆時期的結束,今次加息顯示聯儲局對經濟的信心。

該局相信,提高利率是反映經濟前景,以及確認推行政策去達致影響未來經濟情況所須的時間。

廣告

聯儲局加息消息公佈後,美股全部上揚,升超過1%,道指收市升224點(即1.3%),報17749點。標普500指數漲29點(1.5%),報2073點;納指則升75點(1.5%),收報5071點。

聯儲局會後聲明

Press Release

Release Date: December 16, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

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