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文翠珊可能無法達成協議

2018/9/18 — 10:45

文翠珊(直播片段截圖)

文翠珊(直播片段截圖)

英國的脫歐前途將會很快明朗化,按理不能遲於今年十月作最後決定。文翠珊必須要在今年十月前完成談判,以便歐盟讓其 27 個成員國在國內通過,在明年三年正式啟動脫歐。不能在脫歐後達成無障礙貿易協議不單嚴重打擊英國經濟,還會負面影響本港股市。

文翠珊的脫歐方案是她在今年七月與其閣員在她官方鄉間別墅契克斯莊園(Chequers Court)制訂出來的。由於其前外交及聯邦事務大臣約翰遜反對其方案,契克斯莊園方案導致兩名閣員辭職。文翠珊再以契克斯方案制訂了英國脫歐白皮書,以此與歐盟談判。

文翠珊與約翰遜的主要分歧是在愛爾蘭邊界問題上,約翰遜建議以現代技術解決愛爾蘭內的人員、貨物和服務流通。文翠珊一口拒絕,表示這種技術尚未出土,並表明,英國在其白皮書的原則上絕不讓步。

廣告

今天,文翠珊接受傳媒訪問,表示:她將帶給英國一個好的協議,並表示,它將是她的(白皮書)建議 ,或者硬脫歐。

“I believe we will get a good deal. We will bring that back from the EU negotiations and put that to parliament. I think the alternative to that would be not having a deal because, a) I don’t think the negotiations would have that deal, and b), we’re leaving on the 29 March.”

Theresa May has told the BBC that MPs will have a choice between her proposed deal with the EU - or no deal at all.

廣告

她在訪問中再次評撃愛爾蘭技術邊界的建議。

In an interview with Panorama, she was also critical of plans by Brexiteers to resolve the Irish border issue.

Mr Johnson refers to the suggestions by the European Research Group in his column, saying that "extra checks done away from the border" would prevent the need for physical checks when vehicles move between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.

但問題是,歐盟已集中精力研究如何以技術方法解決愛爾蘭邊界的問題。換句話說,這等於約翰遜方案。這一點,文翠珊一定受不著這度氣。

The Times has reported that the EU is "secretly preparing to accept a frictionless Irish border".

It says the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier is working on a new "protocol" text outlining a plan to use technology to minimise checks.

雪上加霜的是國際貨幣基金組織總裁克里斯蒂娜.拉加德(Lagarde)剛剛在電視前踩多腳。在直播中,她指出英國的生產率奇低,遠遠低於美國、德國和法國等的工人工作能力。

“The larger the impediments to trade in the new relationship, the costlier it will be,” she said. “This should be fairly obvious, but it seems that sometimes it is not.”

總論

從種種跡象,文翠珊不能帶給英國脫歐軟著陸。

 

Reference
Reuters: UK economy would contract without a Brexit deal-IMF's Lagarde
The Telegraph: UK economy ‘must get more efficient’, says IMF
Reuters: IMF's Lagarde says pre-Brexit warnings vindicated by slower UK growth

 

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