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歷史對任何議論最重要的啟示是:never say never

2016/11/10 — 11:47

希拉莉(資料圖片)

希拉莉(資料圖片)

近數年的發展,愈加令人相信,意外是歷史發展的一大推力。

美國總統大選前一週,路透社報導,穆迪按一籃子政經因素預測,指希拉里會奪得332張選舉人票,特朗普則只能得206票。報導並指,從列根勝選後,穆迪預測一直準確。然後大選結果,與預測有著明顯落差。

一直很喜歡提蘇聯的例子。1990年,很多人即使見到蘇聯千瘡百孔,但仍然不相信蘇聯會瓦解,然後一年後,這大部份人不相信的事,成了重大歷史事件。

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研究著作The Rise and Fall of the The Soviet Economy: An Economic History of the USSR的開首,有這麼一段:

"What is less obvious now, and easily forgotten, is that as late as 1990 such a collapse seemed impossible. Almost all Soviet citizens and almost all foreign observers conceived the Soviet Union as a fixture. It was widely understood to be in difficulties. Its political and economic arrangements were widely seen as both inhumane and ineffective. But hardly anyone expected the state to evaporate, let alone to do so any time soon.

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What is even more easily forgotten now is that well into the 1970s the Soviet Union was seldom described as failing."

歷史對任何議論最重要的啟示是,never say never。

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Moody's Analytics election model predicts Clinton win

Low gas prices and President Barack Obama's high approval ratings are key factors that favor Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the White House in next week's election, according to a model from Moody's Analytics that has accurately predicted the last nine U.S. presidential contests.

Clinton is forecast to pick up 332 Electoral College votes against 206 for Republican Donald Trump, Moody's Analytics predicted on Tuesday in the final update of its model before Election Day on Nov. 8. That would match Obama's margin of victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in 2012.

The Reuters-Ipsos States of the Nation project also predicts a Clinton win, with a 95 percent probability of her winning at least 278 electoral votes. A candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to be elected president.

The Moody's Analytics model is based on a combination of state-level economic conditions and political history, and has correctly called the outcome of each presidential election since Republican Ronald Reagan unseated Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Rather than focus on the individual candidates in a race, the model instead centers on whether current economic and political conditions favor the incumbent party in the White House. This year those factors point to Clinton becoming the 45th U.S. president.

The economic factors Moody's measures include the two-year percentage changes in real personal income per household, as well as house and gasoline prices.

Among the political factors weighed, Moody's said the most important is the share of the vote in any one state that went to the incumbent party in the previous election. It also takes into account voter fatigue and the incumbent president's approval ratings.

This year, with Obama enjoying some of his highest job approval ratings since his first year in office in 2009 and gasoline prices holding steady at well-below-average levels, the model suggests the Democrats will win their third straight presidential election, Moody's said. That would mark the first time since the 1988 election of Republican George H.W. Bush that one party has won three consecutive presidential contests.

Moody's warns, however, that its model does not take into account any individual characteristics of specific candidates.

"Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is very possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome, particularly state-by-state projections," Moody's analytics economist Dan White wrote in the report.

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